All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades
An Ira-Sohn-style pitch competition: four managers each pitch one high-conviction idea to the Besties, who then size and rank them. **The four picks are MGM Resorts (Aaron Cowen, Serretta Capital), Talon Energy (Dan Dreyfus), Actis Oncology / AKTS (Oleg Nodelman, EcoR1), and the Geodnet crypto token / GEOD (Kyle Samani, ex-Multicoin).** **MGM is pitched as an event-driven triple.** Barry Diller has accumulated 26% and just bid $48 (stock was ~$37 when the deck was built); the company bought back half its float in six years. The real value is two hidden options the market ignores: a 2030 Osaka casino license (Japan gaming ~$40bn vs Macau $30bn, Vegas $10bn; ~$2bn EBITDA, MGM owns 40% plus a management fee) and 300,000 sq ft of empty space pre-built into its Dubai property in case gambling is legalised. Sum-of-parts: Vegas ~$60, Japan ~$50, Dubai ~$40-50 = potentially $100-150. Don't tender to Diller, who is a *financial*, not strategic, buyer. MGM won the live (Besties) vote despite placing second in the audience vote. **Talon Energy is the AI-power-scarcity play.** Dreyfus frames a data center as a refinery — **"$50 billion per gigawatt"** — and argues you don't even need AI to keep power tight for 20 years. Talon (2GW nuclear + 6GW gas) trades at a ~$25bn EV vs ~$45bn replacement cost; at a ~$300 stock that's ~7x FCF (~$50/share) vs ~15x for infra peers — a double doing nothing, $70/share if it signs more data-center deals, $100+/share if it builds new capacity. PJM alone needs 106 GW of new power in 10 years. Talon topped the audience vote. **Actis (AKTS)** is a radiopharma platform (actinium-payload "microdrones") targeting Nectin-4 and B7H3; ~$1bn cap, ~$500m EV, IPO 18x oversubscribed with a $100m Lilly backstop, key data Q1 2027. Nodelman pegs fair value at ~$10bn / $200 a share on one program working, with a China-replication moat because actinium-225 isn't available there. **Geodnet (GEOD)** is a DePIN RTK network (2cm vs GPS's ~2m precision), ~$150m FDV, ~$11m ARR growing 3x, routing 80% of revenue (~$8.8m/yr) into open-market token buybacks. **Chamath's verdict: he loves all four, the differentiator is sizing and liquidity** — MGM and Talon absorb tens of millions; Actis and Geodnet are illiquid lottery tickets.
Key points
- Aaron Cowen (Serretta Capital, $4bn, ex-Soros equities head / ex-CIO for Steve Cohen) pitches MGM as a triple: Barry Diller owns 26% and bid $48 vs a ~$37 starting price; the company repurchased half its float in six years.
- MGM's hidden options: a 2030 Osaka, Japan casino license (~$2bn EBITDA, MGM owns 40% + management fee; Japan gaming market ~$40bn vs Macau $30bn / Vegas $10bn) plus 300,000 sq ft pre-built in Dubai if gambling is legalised — SOTP ~$100-150/share.
- Dan Dreyfus pitches Talon Energy on the Sam Zell 'buy below replacement cost' playbook: 2GW nuclear + 6GW gas at ~$25bn EV vs ~$45bn replacement value, so equity alone re-rating to replacement cost is more than a double.
- Talon math: ~7x FCF today (~$50/share at a ~$300 stock) vs ~15x for US infra; ~$70/share with more data-center contracts and $100+/share if it builds new power — PJM alone needs 106 GW of new capacity in 10 years.
- Dreyfus frames data centers as refineries at '$50 billion per gigawatt' and cites Jensen Huang's claim that 'we need 1,000 times more power' — argues power stays tight 20 years even without AI demand; coal retirements won't happen.
- Oleg Nodelman (EcoR1, ~$2.5bn, +20% annualised / 10x since 2013) pitches Actis Oncology (AKTS): actinium radiopharma platform, ~$1bn cap / ~$500m EV, IPO 18x oversubscribed with a $100m Lilly backstop, lead data on Nectin-4 in Q1 2027.
- Nodelman's Actis moat thesis: actinium-225 is a US nuclear-program waste product unavailable in China, so unlike most biotech it resists Chinese generic replication; fair value ~$10bn / $200 a share if one program reaches market.
- Kyle Samani (ex-Multicoin, led all three pre-launch Solana rounds) pitches Geodnet (GEOD): a DePIN RTK network with ~2cm precision (100x GPS), 22,000 nodes across 150 countries, customers DJI, John Deere, TomTom; ~$150m FDV, ~$11m ARR growing 3x.
- Geodnet routes 80% of revenue (~$8.8m/yr) into open-market GEOD token buybacks — effectively a revenue-share token; Samani argues it's a natural telecom-style monopoly and dismisses LEO-satellite RTK competitors on cost and energy use.
- Chamath endorses the Druckenmiller 'invest and investigate' (skin in the game) approach and says his only disagreement is sizing: MGM and Talon can absorb tens of millions; Geodnet he 'could not get a million dollars in today' without moving the market.
- Results: Talon won the 150-vote audience poll (50%), MGM second (24%), Actis third (21%), Geodnet last (5%) — but the Besties' on-stage ranking put MGM first, flipping the audience result; Gavin Baker was recruited to pitch a 'silicon and memory super cycle' next year.
Notable quotes
Rarely have I ever seen a company in six years buy half their float back.
So we think the stock is a triple.
Barry now owns 26% of the company.
We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years.
Big capital intensive asset, $50 billion per gigawatt.
So here's Jensen, and he was just recently quoted that we need 1,000 times more power than we currently have.
Generally speaking, investing in biotech companies is a horrible idea sandwiched somewhere between movies, wineries and spacs.
We think Actis could be worth 10 billion or $200 per share if even one of their programs makes it to market.
That means $8.8 million right now per year is going into buying Geodnet tokens on the open market.
My difference is in sizing.
Themes
- AI-capex sustainability
- AI-power scarcity
- event-driven special situations
- radiopharma biotech moats
- crypto DePIN tokenomics
Mentioned
People
Companies
Ideas
- Event-driven sum-of-parts (MGM Osaka + Dubai optionality)
- Buy below replacement cost (Sam Zell playbook)
- Data center as refinery / $50bn per gigawatt
- AI power scarcity and 20-year tight power markets
- Radiopharmaceutical platform with China-proof actinium moat
- DePIN crypto network with revenue-share token buybacks
- Sizing and liquidity as the real differentiator across ideas
- Druckenmiller invest-and-investigate / skin in the game