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Invest Like the Best

Uber CEO on AI, Autonomous Vehicles, and the Future of Transportation

1h 11m · Transcribed via assemblyai · Watch on YouTube

Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO) with Patrick O'Shaughnessy. The throughline: Uber is the one scaled aggregator sitting where digital AI meets the physical world, and its bet is to own AV *demand*, not build the driver. The load-bearing market signal is the ROI reckoning landing inside a real P&L: **'We blew through our AI budget in a quarter, you know, for the whole year, essentially. And it is forcing us to adjust'** — so Uber is now **metering headcount** as engineers get *'superhuman in terms of their output'*, and explicitly tiering models — *'we're using the more expensive models to explore... once we scale some of these experiences... we're look to bring in more efficient models that are more efficient on a token basis or open source.'* This is the same enterprise-token-discipline thesis the [20VC roundtable](/issues/2026-06-07) and last issue's [All-In ROI thread](/issues/2026-05-31) flagged — Dara is the live proof, and the model-commoditisation hedge spoken from the buyer's seat. On AVs: **over 30 partnerships** (Waymo, Nuro, Lucid, Nvidia, Wabi, Wayve, Pony) and the conviction there *'isn't going to be a single winner'* — the same many-models logic running through the whole cohort, now applied to digital drivers. The single hardest number: **AVs on Uber's network are '30% or more busy than... 1P AVs who aren't using our network'** in trips and revenue per vehicle per day — the entire 'why partner with us' pitch, and the ROI lever for anyone funding **$60-70k** robotaxis. He sizes AV as **'another trillion dollar marketplace'**, with AV-hardware cost falling *'usually 30 to 40% per generation'*. Marketplace economics: **$10B+ free cash flow** on *'well over 10 billion trips a year'* (*'we are not a high margin business'*), **Uber One at 50M members growing 50% YoY**, **Reserve at a $5B+ run rate** from nothing five-six years ago. Capital allocation: **'I prioritize growth, I prioritize innovation over buybacks. If you're building the company right, you'll do both'** — Amazon, not Apple. The pre-mortem is social licence, not technology: AI and AVs are *'unpopular... with the general public'*, and Uber will *'go at the pace that society is prepared for us to move.'* And the China tell for the AV supply chain: Chinese manufacturing *'in terms of quality and cost at this point is unrivaled.'*

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Notable quotes

We blew through our AI budget in a quarter, you know, for the whole year, essentially. And it is forcing us to adjust. You know, we are going to meter headcount increases because to the extent that my engineers are getting much more efficient, their throughput is increasing.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 19:07

And the way that I put it is we're using the more expensive models to explore, hey, let's try a new interaction here. And obviously, you know, these frontier models, whether it's a OpenAI model or a cloud model, they really are terrific and they're great to experiment against. Once we scale some of these experiences and interactions, we're look to bring in more efficient models that are more efficient on a token basis or open source and again, lower cost.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 19:07

We've got over 30 partnerships now with incredible partners like a Waymo to a Neuro and Lucid to an Nvidia that is building not just compute and, and sensors, but also a software driver.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 24:17

Just like you're seeing in the foundation model space, there isn't going to be a single winner. There are going to be many players on the foundation models. There'll be open source, smaller models as well.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 24:17

And what we're seeing is consumers love the product and AVs that are on our network are 30% or more busy than, let's say, 1P AVs who aren't using our network. That 30% in terms of trips per vehicle per day, in terms of revenue per vehicle per day can make a huge difference in terms of your ROI of investing in these expensive cars.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 24:17

we think it's another trillion dollar marketplace. We think that over a long period of time, as we see the cost of AV software come down, and usually we see the cost of hardware come down, I mean this is universal, but usually 30 to 40% per generation.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 32:36

We've got over $10 billion in free cash flow, which is great, but it's on well over 10 billion trips a year. So we are not a high margin business.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 19:07

we have our Uber 1 membership program. 50 million members now growing 50% year on year. Every company has a membership program. But the way I look at it is we're kind of like Netflix. For the same price, you get more content than anyone else.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 38:40

I prioritize growth, I prioritize innovation over buybacks. If you're building the company right, you'll do both.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 1:03:36

you've seen how powerful AI is, but at the same time how unpopular it is with the general public.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 30:12

The Chinese capabilities in terms of manufacturing, both in terms of quality and cost at this point is unrivaled.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 34:22

reserve now is over $5 billion run rate. It didn't exist, you know, five, six years ago.

Dara Khosrowshahi · 50:42

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